MTI外刊阅读精选美国关税政策或危及全球经济复苏.docx

MTI外刊阅读精选美国关税政策或危及全球经济复苏Tariffs could lop 0.5 points off global growth, IMF warnsDonald Trumps imposition of tariffs on imports threatens to knock almost 15 per cent off global growth by 2020, the IMF warned on Monday, adding that financial markets were complacent in the face of new risks.国际货币基金组织(IMF)周一警告称，唐纳德特朗普(Donald Trump)对进口产品征收关税的做法，到 2020年可能会使全球经济增长率降低近 15%，并补充说，金融市场面对新的风险表现得满不在乎。The IMF currently thinks the global economy is set to expand 3.8 per cent in 2020. But the fund projected that global growth could be 0.5 percentage points lower by that point if all the threatened trade measures were implemented with a knock-on impact on business confidence in the US.IMF目前认为，2020 年全球经济将增长 3.8%。但该机构预计，如果威胁要采取的所有贸易措施都落实到位，进而对美国的商业信心造成连锁打击，全球经济增长可能会下降 0.5个百分点。Updating its April economic forecasts, the fund cut growth outlook for many countries to reflect weakness in the first quarter of this year, but warned that these cuts would be much worse if the US tariffs already imposed turn into a full trade war.在更新其 4月份作出的经济预测之际，IMF 调降了许多国家的增长前景以反映今年第一季度的疲软，但警告称，如果美国出炉的关税演变为一场全面贸易战，调降幅度将会大得多。“Growth projections have been revised down for the euro area, Japan, and the United Kingdom, reflecting negative surprises to activity in early 2018,” the fund said. It also suggested that Brexit is posing a risk:“欧元区、日本和英国的经济增长预测已被调降，反映2018年初的经济活动出现负面意外。”IMF 表示。该机构还提出，英国退欧正在构成一个风险：The outlook is clouded by ongoing trade tensions and waning support for global economic integration in some advanced economies. In the past few months, the United States has imposed tariffs on a variety of imports, prompting retaliatory measures from trading partners. At the same time, Nafta and the economic arrangements between the United Kingdom and the rest of the European Union are under renegotiation.“前景被持续的贸易紧张和某些发达经济体对全球经济一体化支持的减弱蒙上阴影。在过去几个月里，美国对多种进口产品征收关税，促使贸易伙伴采取报复措施。与此同时，北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)以及英国与欧盟其他国家之间的经济安排正在重新谈判中。”Maurice Obstfeld, IMF chief economist, said that financial markets were “broadly complacent” about the trade risks because the measures imposed so far “frankly apply to a rather small range of exports”, but warned that 0.5 percentage points could soon be knocked off growth.IMF首席经济学家莫里斯奥布斯特费尔德(Maurice Obstfeld)表示，金融市场对贸易风险“基本上满不在乎”，因为迄今采取的措施“坦率说来适用于相当小的出口范围”，但他警告，可能很快就会损失 0.5个百分点的经济增长率。Overall, the IMF cut its European growth estimated by 0.2 percentage points in 2018 to reflect a disappointing first quarter of the year, but left its global forecast unchanged.总体而言，IMF 在 2018年将欧洲经济增长预测下调 0.2个百分点，以反映令人失望的今年第一季度，但没有改变全球增长预测。On the US presidents tariffs, the fund said: “These could derail the recovery and depress medium-term growth prospects, both through their direct impact on resource allocation and productivity and by raising uncertainty and taking a toll on investment”.对于美国总统出台的关税，IMF 表示：“这些可能会破坏复苏，抑制中期增长前景，无论是通过直接影响资源配置和生产率，还是通过增加不确定性和打击投资。”